Inferential Focus

Using our disciplined intelligence-gathering process, we have been consistently able to alert our clients early to critical change that has proven to have substantial impact on markets and consumers. We’ve described several of these examples of early change detection below.

Currency Revaluations Housing Crisis and Economic Tsunami Terrorist Activity World War III Asian Flu

Change Area	Anxious Age of Revaluations
Our Intelligence	Volatile commodity prices Rising costs of foreign production Consumers pulling back from popular items such as Starbucks Countries expanding money supply
Our Discovery Date	August 2008
Actual Events	Dollar rises against other currencies More countries "manage" their currencies Increased protectionism Competitive devaluations Global reassessment of values ensues

Change Area	Housing Crisis and Economic Tsunami
Our Intelligence	Maniacal valuations in housing; home used as ATM. Unprecedented securitization of assets; "CDOs cubed" Stagnant incomes; zero percent savings Interconnected global financial market
Our Discovery Date	Summer 2005
Actual Events	At least 20% collapse in housing prices Seizure of credit market; banks fail. Developed economies recession Emerging markets slowdown; collapse of commodities

Change Area	Terrorist Activity (part of World War III)
Our Intelligence	Large number of unexplained bombings July/August 2000 Evidence of networks of relationships and communications; Osama bin Laden and Hamas; Arab Afghans with Phillipines
Our Discovery Date	Sept 5, 2000
Actual Events	Terrorist Attacks Sept. 11, 2001

Change Area	World War III – Response to Permeable Borders
Our Intelligence	Recurring conflicts in Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia, and South America over globalization. Rising nationalism New information technology makes economic, communications, and cultural borders more permeable Nations worldwide attempt to secure these borders and their national boundaries
Our Discovery Date	Summer 1998
Actual Events	Sept 11 Terrorist Attack Tighter Immigration Policies Cybercrime/Cyberwar expand Consumers, Corporations, and Governments enter security/control mania

Change Area	Macroeconomic: "Asian Flu"
Our Intelligence	Potential for volatile currencies in "tiger" countries More heated technology industry competion Greater political risks "Addiction to Growth
Our Discovery Date	Fall 1996
Actual Events	Currency crisis hits Southeast Asian economies