A new global military dynamic had been emerging in the last few years, marked by a more multipolar distribution of military capabilities, along with rising brinkmanship from players such as Russia and China. That transition has accelerated as a result of the global rise of the New Autocrats’ style of leadership, in which autocratic leaders are building up their countries’ military capabilities while stirring their citizens with nationalist rhetoric. Meanwhile, countries located near those autocracies are responding in turn with their own military buildups.
Because many countries and nonstate actors cannot compete head-to-head with the financial spending and/or conventional arms technologies of the world’s powers, some are adopting lower-cost approaches, such as the use of cyber attacks, lasers and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, which makes for a more level playing field, in particular with the United States.