Saudi Trifecta And The Syria Endgame

Saudi Trifecta And The Syria Endgame

Saudi Arabia, which has been frustrated for years by geo-political and geo-economic developments in the Middle East, has recently upped its rhetorical push against Iran and radicals in the region and has targeted a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),Qatar, for its alleged sympathies toward Iran. The original Saudi Trifecta, which we outlined in 2014, has returned some favorable results to Riyadh, but other objectives have not been realized. A major objective of the Trifecta was to control the radicals in the region using the weapon of low oil prices to “encourage” Iran to cooperate in eliminating radical activities.The frustration from those shortcomings, along with increased antagonism over the Syrian conflict, has moved the Saudis to narrow their focus to a conflict with Iran and the radicals in the region, essentially restoking the ancient rivalry between Shia and Sunni Islam. Resurrecting ancient rivalries at this point in time seems to be an indirect way of making a play in the end games that have started in the battles overSyria and against ISIS. The deeper conflict is over who will rule what in post-war Syria and Iraq. Will there be a Shiite Islamic crescent from Bahrain, through Iran and Iraq, across Syria and into Lebanon? The Saudis are rallying Sunni allies, putting Iran on the defensive and making the Syrian war hotter as well. The conflict could become even hotter in the near future.

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