The Rush To EVs Runs Into The Reality Barrier

The Rush To EVs Runs Into The Reality Barrier

The Rush To EVs Runs Into The Reality Barrier

In the first three months of 2022, electric vehicle (EV) registrations in the U.S. increased 60 percent year-over-year, even as the overall auto market declined 18 percent. Everywhere you look, automakers are implementing changes to foster the transition to EV production and sales, while some states and governments are attempting to facilitate adoption. General Motors is offering to buy out dealers that don’t want to invest in EVs and is creating a new business making EV chargers. The company announced that it aims to stop selling petrol-powered and diesel models by 2035. Audi plans to stop producing such vehicles by 2033. Ford is shifting its business model toward direct-to-consumer sales to facilitate EV adoption while laying off workers in its internal combustion engine division. The Biden administration, which recently approved plans from 34 states and Puerto Rico to create a national EV-charging network, has set a goal of making EVs half of all new car sales by 2030, while California has implemented a 2035 outright ban on gas-powered vehicles. Yet while this momentum exists and electric vehicle sales growth should remain strong, meeting the goals set by automakers and countries to reach this electric vehicle future is going to require overcoming significant hurdles, including sourcing and competition for raw materials, environmental concerns and resource nationalism. Automakers and other companies are seeking solutions to those challenges, but our intelligence suggests that, without a significant change in course, it is unlikely that they will meet the goals they have set.

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