The Saudi Trifecta

The Saudi Trifecta

The recent downward plunge of global oil prices has triggered an immense amount of speculation and fortune-telling. What we explained two years ago was that dynamics within the industry and geopolitical realities outside the industry were scrambling the energy market in such a way as to put longtime power brokers at risk and to make new sources of energy become signifi cant players. That is what stands behind the recent actions of Saudi Arabia to increase production and send prices plummeting. The Saudi adventure looks very much like Riyadh might be hitting a trifecta of effects: (1) retain at-risk market share and extend it into new customers; (2) positively affect economies worldwide just when many countries face sliding growth; and (3) force countries whose recent actions have been harmful to the Saudis to deal with rapidly declining revenues and the domestic problems that such a change in economic conditions will likely cause. Geoeconomics is changing geo-politics, as Saudi Arabia and China make headway, along with Europe and the U.S.

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