Valuations Are Often Emotional

Valuations Are Often Emotional

Assets are hot. Well, many more assets are enjoying steadily increasing value than would be happening in more routine times. The traditional investment community has started placing money in strange places:in bonds with negative interest rates or payment-in-kind bonds, for instance, or in riskier and riskier instruments, such as direct placements in start-ups. Talk of bubbles is everywhere, and a bubble mentality has emerged; its causes and characteristics include: supply-demand distortions; negative “growth corrected interest rates”; pump-and-dump, etc.; overload of information; “speed is god, time is the devil”;FOMO (fear of missing out); and complexity. What happens after this all peaks and a down cycle in theinvestment arena ensues? Historically, major periods of innovation have been followed immediately by a time of dealing with the damage, but that has been followed by a period in which the credible and productive innovations from the overpriced cycle lead the economy forward. What are some of those innovations today? Artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT), streaming, 5G, electric vehicles and green technologies.

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